Standing on the Rubicon

Friday, August 18, 2006

Apples and Oranges

I was looking at the Breaking News headlines at Haaretz, where there were these three stories in a row:


19:49 Bush: It could take time for world to accept war was a Hezbollah loss (AP)
19:43 Hezbollah distributing money to Beirut residents who lost homes in IAF attacks (AP)
19:39 Nasrallah voted most popular figure in Middle East in Egyptian poll (Reuters)


And I know that the administration is still clinging to an view that it's the bricks and mortar side of what happened in the Hezbollah-Lebanese encounter that really matters. But that's not true.

Short term, and for longer what really matters are two things:

Israel lost face and will be going through a crisis based on the differences between their military and government in reality vs. image.

Hezbollah gained incredible face, even at the cost of much physical damage.

When it comes to support, money, people willing to bridge the differences between shia and sunni theologies for an Us who are Islam vs. Those who are not, dig into their pockets, feel emboldened at home, this face issue may count much more than any amount of munitions lost or even fighters who died for the cause.

Wake up and smell the coffee, State Department! See what's happening on the ground, White House! because if you get into self-delusions, you will most certainly get stung.

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