Standing on the Rubicon

Sunday, August 20, 2006

Rajab 27

On August 22, Rajab 27, Iran has announced that it will release its reply to the UN Security Council on the Council's demand for Iran to stop its nuclear program. A lot of noise has gone out over the internet about the significance of that day. Rajab 27 is a significant day in the calendar of Iran:

The Shiites ... celebrate Mabath to commemorate the day they believe Allah appeared before Mohammed in a cave and told him he had been chosen as the prophet to spread the divine message across the world. Mabath is marked by Shiites in Iran and other parts of the Middle East with great ceremony. (Debka, quoting Bernard Lewis )

But this is not what is stirring the buzz in the internet and intelligence communities. In other parts of the world, the day is celebrated as Lailat al Miraj, the night of the Isra and Mi'raj:

As Muhammad was resting in the Kaaba, Gabriel came to him, and brought him the winged steed Buraq, who carried him to the "furthest mosque", where he alighted, tethered Buraq, and led other prophets in prayer. He then got back on Buraq, and was taken to the heavens, where he toured heaven and hell (described in some detail), and spoke with the earlier prophets, and with Allah. Allah told him to enjoin the Muslims to pray fifty times a day; however, Moses told Muhammad that they would never do it, and urged Muhammad to go back several times and ask for a reduction, until finally it was reduced to five times a day.

Afterwards, the unbelieving Meccans regarded this as absurd, and some went to Abu Bakr and told him "Look at what your companion is saying. He says he went to Jerusalem and came back in one night." Abu Bakr told them, "If he said that, then he is truthful. I believe him concerning the news of the heavens — that an angel descends to him from the heavens. How could I not believe he went to Jerusalem and came back in a short period of time — when these are on earth?" It was for this that Abu Bakr is said to have received his famous title "as-Siddiq", the believer. (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Isra_and_Miraj)

It is the feeling among many that Iran will choose this time to make some sort of action, announcement or other event that echos the image of the Lailat al Miraj.

Robert Spencer, at Front Page Magazine, quotes Farid Ghadry, the president of the Reform Party of Syria as saying;

Ahmadinejad is planning an illumination of the night sky over Jerusalem to rival the one that greeted the Prophet of Islam on his journey. What the Iranian President, he says, is “promising the world by August 22 is the light in the sky over the Aqsa Mosque that took place the night before. That is his answer to the package of incentives the international community offered Iran on June 6. Link Here

Bernard Lewis has been quoted by many as an expert on this idea. In what may be one of the most quoted excerpts on the subject from a recent article:

In Islam, as in Judaism and Christianity, there are certain beliefs concerning the cosmic struggle at the end of time--Gog and Magog, anti-Christ, Armageddon, and for Shiite Muslims, the long awaited return of the Hidden Imam, ending in the final victory of the forces of good over evil, however these may be defined. Mr. Ahmadinejad and his followers clearly believe that this time is now, and that the terminal struggle has already begun and is indeed well advanced. It may even have a date, indicated by several references by the Iranian president to giving his final answer to the U.S. about nuclear development by Aug. 22. This was at first reported as "by the end of August," but Mr. Ahmadinejad's statement was more precise. http://www.opinionjournal.com/extra/?id=110008768

This idea has been picked up and discussed on a large number of blogs and other sites. Here are a couple of typical examples:

Ahmadinejad could be hinting to the West that he is preparing a major attack on Israel. Or, the Iranian president could be warning that unless the West caves in, he would escalate tension in the region. The lightening in Mohammed's story could represent Iranian missiles.

What is clear is that Ahmadinejad does not see himself as an Iranian leader, but a Muslim prophet, using imagery to portray himself as a messiah for both Sunni and Shi'ite Muslims. Link here.


Ahmadinijad's motive is based on religious visions of an imminent apocalypse; his means are the short range missiles already deployed in Lebanon, and longer-range rockets like the various Zelzals; his opportunity has been created and cultivated for him by Hizballah. Link here
There are many more.

The drums are pounding louder in come corners as the time grows nearer. The Debkafile today reports:

DEBKAfile’s intelligence sources report that information rated “highly credible” has reached US undercover agencies of a secret report presented to Iran’s supreme ruler Ali Khamenei by Abdollah Shabhazi, one of the heads of the Supreme National Security Council. He claims to expose a mega-terror plot against Jerusalem scheduled for August 22, which aims at killing large numbers of Jews, Arabs and Christians.

This atrocity will reportedly arm the United States and Israel with the pretext for hitting Iran’s nuclear installations, as well its capital, Tehran, and other big cities.

Shabhazi says the US and Israel need to launch a military campaign to restore the deterrent strength they lost in the Lebanon war.

The massive attack will reportedly focus on the Old City of Jerusalem and its eastern suburbs. The Iranian report claims that the plotters, who are not identified, are eager to recreate the divine white light whish spread over Jerusalem in the year 632. It does not rule out the use of a non-conventional weapon.
http://www.debka.com/article.php?aid=1203

Either something will happen during the period of the night of August 21-August 22 or not.

But it is interesting to contemplate public comments from Iran that are feeding this speculation:

Jul 18

Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said Tuesday, “The day of happiness for the region is near… The world is on the verge of great changes,” according to the Iranian news agency.

August 2

"The American regime must expect a hard slap on the face and the crushing fist of Muslim ummah because of its support for the crimes and the Zionist criminals and its blatant violation of the rights of Muslim nations." Khamenei, speech

August 3

"Anybody who recognizes Israel will burn in the fire of the Islamic nation's fury." Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, speech in Malaysia.

Aug 14

Tehran, Iran, Aug. 14 – Iran issued a stark warning on Sunday that it would change its nuclear policy for the worse if the West continued to apply pressure on it to abandon uranium enrichment.

August 19

Ayatollah Seyed Ali Khamenei says: to graduating university students: "Dear university students! I hereby greet you one by one and pray that God Almighty would grant you a more prosperous and dignified future thanks to your efforts, hopeful hearts and increasing joyfulness. Today, you are the replica of the country's future. The future of this country, which has seen enlightenment by embracing science and faith, lies in the research activities and deep thinking of this country's youth accompanied by faith, moral uprightness, a revolutionary spirit and hard work. In the future that we anticipate, the dark forces of ignorance, cruelty and injustice have been wiped out," the Supreme Leader said in his message.

August 20

Iranian state media say Iran's army has test-fired several short-range missiles as part of a major military exercise that began Saturday. Iranian television says the military tested a surface-to-surface missile called the Saegheh (which means lightning in Farsi) that has a range of 80 to 250 kilometers. The television report says the missile test took place Sunday in the Kashan desert.


Come the 23rd, we can sit back and analyse what really happened and why. Until then, time enough to wait, watch the news, and wonder.

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